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As UK's Johnson Teeters On The Edge, Here Are The Top Contenders To Succeed As Next Tory PM_我的网站
A | 对于金州勇士，近几年最关键的问题，就在于库里最后几年，勇士还要不要等？ 这也是今夏勇士休赛期最应该回答的问题。 近日，美媒《Bleacher Report》围绕勇士甩出一套6换4方案，具体内容如下： 勇士得到：希罗、特纳、哈克斯、小凯文-波特； 雄鹿得到：巴特勒、波杰、穆迪、理查德，附加27年、31年首轮。 表面看，这笔交易对于勇士堪称拆家；放弃老将巴特勒，年轻人也没了，还送走两个首轮，家底几乎掏干净。 With Boris Johnson’s premiership rocked by shock resignations of his Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor Rishi Sunak amid the latest damning scandal, Tory rebels have seen their hopes of toppling the Prime Minister fueled anew. While there was no indication from Johnson on Tuesday night that he intended to quit, as he carried out a speedy Cabinet reshuffle, a leadership contest appeared to be looming on the horizon. This has unleashed speculation regarding who could be in the running to replace the PM.,Rishi Sunak,The ex-Chancellor is tipped by many as the favourite to succeed Johnson as a future leader of the Conservative Party.,At one point Rishi Sunak was top of the regular chart compiled by the ConservativeHome website.,However, his reputation was dealt a severe blow earlier this year by backlash over his billionaire heiress wife Akshata Murty’s non-domicile tax status, albeit there was no suggestion she had broken any rules.,Rishi Sunak Tumbles to Bottom of Tory Popularity Ranks Amid Wife’s Taxes & US Green Card Controversy25 April, 13:50 GMT,Furthermore, Sunak faced questions over keeping his US green card even after taking up the key job of Chancellor at No11. At the time, Sunak slipped to the bottom of the April chart compiled by the ConservativeHome website.,Nevertheless, the Conservative Party membership has overall approved of Sunak, dubbed the “low-tax chancellor”, suggested UK media outlets. Some analysts suggest his approval rating with the public has increased again this month amid measures implemented to support Britons through the cost of living crisis. Others have pointed to criticism of his perceived slow reaction to rising energy bills and insufficient help to the poorest households.,Rishi Sunak remains in the top five MPs most likely to take over from Johnson, with odds of 10/1 according to BetFair Exchange.,Penny Mordaunt,Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for Trade Policy since 2021, had thrown her support behind Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership election. After that she exited the Cabinet, but later became paymaster general in 2020. She was subsequently moved to the Department for International Trade.,© AP Photo / Kirsty WigglesworthIn this file photo dated Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2019, Government minister Penny Mordaunt leaves after a Cabinet meeting at Downing Street in London. The international development secretary, Mordaunt has been appointed to replace Gavin Williamson who was sacked Wednesday May 2, 2019, as U.K. defense chief. In this file photo dated Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2019, Government minister Penny Mordaunt leaves after a Cabinet meeting at Downing Street in London. The international development secretary, Mordaunt has been appointed to replace Gavin Williamson who was sacked Wednesday May 2, 2019, as U.K. defense chief. © AP Photo / Kirsty Wigglesworth,At times openly critical of government policy, on May 28, after the publication of the full Sue Gray report into “Partygate,” Mordaunt told the BBC that she was “angry” at Downing Street staff implicated in the row for blatantly ignoring pandemic rules while themselves blocking “reasonable requests to relax restrictions”.,Mordaunt is known to have said, regarding Johnson:,“I didn’t choose this prime minister, I didn’t support him in the leadership contest but he has always had my loyalty.",Penny Mordaunt is currently on odds of 6/1 on most of the major betting sites to replace Johnson.,Sajid Javid,Bromsgrove MP Sajid Javid’s odds appear to be on 19/1, according to various betting platforms. Javid was one of 10 Tory leadership challengers in 2019. He then held the position of UK Chancellor, resigning in February 2020 after Johnson ordered him to fire his team of aides, saying "no self-respecting minister" could accept such a condition. He was brought back into Boris Johnson’s cabinet as Health Secretary in summer 2021, after COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.,© AP Photo / Toby MelvilleBritain's former Health Secretary Sajid Javid speaks during a media briefing in Downing Street, London, Oct. 20, 2021. Britain's former Health Secretary Sajid Javid speaks during a media briefing in Downing Street, London, Oct. 20, 2021. © AP Photo / Toby Melville,Back when he threw his hat in the ring for the 2019 Tory leadership contest, Javid proposed cutting the top rate of income tax. More recently, he was reportedly among those against a windfall tax on oil and gas producers – a stance that might help boost his chances.,On June 6, Sajid Javid stressed his loyalty to the PM amid the “Partygate” row, saying a confidence vote was an “opportunity... to draw a line under all this”.,Jeremy Hunt,Jeremy Hunt, the former Health Secretary who also served as Foreign Secretary, lost to Johnson in the final round of the 2019 Conservative leadership contest. Since then he has been highly critical of the government.,© AFP 2022 / STEFAN ROUSSEAULeadership contender Jeremy Hunt (L) shakes hands to congratulate new Conservative Party leader and incoming prime minister Boris Johnson (R) as the results of the leadership contest are announced at an event in central London on July 23, 2019Leadership contender Jeremy Hunt (L) shakes hands to congratulate new Conservative Party leader and incoming prime minister Boris Johnson (R) as the results of the leadership contest are announced at an event in central London on July 23, 2019© AFP 2022 / STEFAN ROUSSEAU,As chairman of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, he excoriated Johnson’s team for its response to the pandemic. Maintaining a visible profile, he has been giving interviews to outlets, touting his new book and reflecting on the future of the Conservative Party. Thus, he recently warned that the Tories have a "big mountain to climb" if they hope to win the next general election amid fallout from the “Partygate” scandal.,'He's Definitely Running': Jeremy Hunt 'Testing The Waters' To Stand As PM If BoJo Is Ousted1 May, 05:38 GMT,Earlier this month, Hunt told The Times magazine now was not the “right time” for a leadership challenge, but he would “be very open with you that I don’t rule out a return in the future”.,Jeremy Hunt is on odds of 8/1 to take over Tory leadership.,Liz Truss,The Foreign Secretary and MP for South West Norfolk, Liz Truss, has been touted as possible Tory leader at odds of 8/1. “Fizz with Liz” has been a phrase associated with Truss amid reports earlier this year that she hosted MPs in her parliamentary office to allegedly recruit possible backers for a leadership challenge to Johnson.,While securing a series of mini trade deals during her tenure as Trade Secretary, her threats to overwrite parts of the controversial Northern Ireland protocol as well as her sanctions response to Russia over its special military operation in Ukraine reportedly found favour with some Conservative backbenchers. Critics purportedly find Truss’s harsh rhetoric on the NI protocol distasteful.,© Photo : NATO Battlegroup Estonia/facebookLiz TrussLiz Truss© Photo : NATO Battlegroup Estonia/facebook,When questioned recently about the prospect of her own bid to become PM, Truss insisted that Johnson retained her “100 per cent” confidence.,While never confirming she intended to run for leadership, she is known to often pose for choreographed social media posts, such as posing in a tank like Margaret Thatcher.,Nadhim Zahawi,The Education Secretary and MP for Stratford-on-Avon, Nadhim Zahawi, is currently at 12/1 odds to take over Tory premiership.,Zahawi, the vaccines minister during the coronavirus pandemic before being promoted to his current position, is noted for unveiling an education White Paper earlier in the year. Coming in the wake of exams mayhem overseen by his predecessor, Gavin Williamson, the government’s vision for schools for the next eight years was given a ‘muted’ response. “Not much to object to, little to inspire, and inadequate funding to achieve any of its stated ambitions,” one source in the education sector was cited as saying at he time.,© Photo : SJA Tory MP James Gray, Nadhim Zahawi and SJA chief exec Martin Houghton-Brown at the eventTory MP James Gray, Nadhim Zahawi and SJA chief exec Martin Houghton-Brown at the event© Photo : SJA,Zahawi has also been an adamant backer of the current government’s “levelling up” agenda with his renewed focus on standards in schools and the multi-academy trust policy.,Zahawi has also vehemently defended Johnson in multiple media appearances throughout the “Partygate” row.,Ben Wallace,Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary who served in the Scots Guards, has drummed up kudos for his part in the UK’s response to Russia’s special operation to demilitarize Ukraine. His odds are seen as vying for second place with Hunt and Truss on 8/1.,Wallace is believed to have won aficionados among Tory MPs who pressed for the UK to increase its defence spending, despite cuts to the size of the army remaining a niggling cause for concern.,© AP Photo / Alex BrandonThe United Kingdom Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace speaks during a meeting with Secretary of Defense Lloyd AustinThe United Kingdom Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace speaks during a meeting with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin© AP Photo / Alex Brandon,Ben Wallace has played down any speculation of his perceived interest in the Tory leadership.,Tom Tugendhat,MP for Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat is on odds of 11/1, according to some platforms.,Notably, the chair of the Foreign Affairs committee, who has been strongly critical of Boris Johnson throughout his premiership, became the first Tory MP in January to announce his intention to stand for leader should the PM quit office.,“I think I’m making it pretty clear that I think that it’s up to all of us to put ourselves forward. And it’s up to the electorate, in the first case parliamentary colleagues, and in the second case the party, to choose. I think it’s a position of absolute integrity to say that of course you should offer yourself to the electorate if you think you can do it. Of course you should talk to colleagues and see if you can get a group together, and if you can get a group together you should go for it,” he had stated.,Priti Patel,Home Secretary Priti Patel has introduced a points-based immigration system and was the architect of the controversial Channel migrant deal with Rwanda, which would see illegals sent to the African country for processing. The agreement placed her in the crosshairs of numerous human rights groups. However, the deal has been touted as capable of solving he migrant problem plaguing the government.,Priti Patel's Reported 'League Table of Nations' for Migrant Deportation Ripped as 'Unhinged'Yesterday, 17:26 GMT,Patel was the last member of the Cabinet to confirm her support for Johnson on Monday amid the latest scandal, with her spokesman saying the Home Secretary continued to give her full backing to the PM.,Dominic Raab,Dominic Raab, the Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary, who also served as Foreign Secretary under Boris Johnson, had run against the current PM in the 2019 Conservative election, making it to third round and finishing sixth after rising through the ranks as a Brexiteer.,© AP Photo / Toby MelvilleIn this Thursday, Sept. 1, 2020 file photo, Britain's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab arrives to attend a cabinet meeting of senior government ministers at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office FCO in London.In this Thursday, Sept. 1, 2020 file photo, Britain's Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab arrives to attend a cabinet meeting of senior government ministers at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office FCO in London.© AP Photo / Toby Melville,Raab gained praise after his deputising stint for Johnson when the PM was hospitalised with COVID-19 in 2020. However, in the wake of the ‘botched’ NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, Raab came under fire for holidaying in Crete while the Afghan government collapsed, and delegating tasks to junior ministers. He was, accordingly moved from being Foreign Secretary.,A spate of tough reforms aimed at ‘clamping down’ on “wokery” in the legal and prison systems were introduced during his time as Justice Secretary.,Raab has publicly urged the public to forgive the Prime Minister over the “Partygate” scandal.,His leadership odds are at approximately at 28/1.,Boris Johnson ‘On the Brink’,The latest wave of cabinet resignations came in the wake of the Prime Minister attempting to draw a line under the latest scandal to rock no 10. Boris Johnson had been giving an interview admitting he should not have appointed now-suspended Tory MP Chris Pincher as deputy chief whip in February after claims the MP groped two men at a private club on June 30.,With No 10 appearing to tie itself into knots trying to explain why Pincher was ever given a key government position in the first place, considering a slew of damning previous sexual misconduct allegations regarding Pincher, both the opposition Labour Party and the rebel Tories have hike up demands for Johnson to step down.,Boris Johnson ‘Vows to Carry On’ After Sunak, Javid ‘Shell-Shock' Exits Prompt Emergency Reshuffle05:54 GMT,The PM’s position appears increasingly shaky amid reports of a plot to use elections to the influential 1922 Committee’s executive to alter the Tory party rules. Currently, they grant Johnson 12-months' immunity from another leadership challenge. But considering he survived a no confidence vote on June 6 with 41% of his party voting to oust him over the so-called “Partygate” row, his position now appears even more shaky.。 但对于现在的勇士，最值钱的并非是首轮签和球员，而是库里余下的巅峰时间。 对于库里，38岁已经很能说明问题，年轻球员可以养成，选秀权可以等，甚至球队成长周期都可以等，但库里的巅峰不等人。
B | 回看这几年，勇士也尝试过年轻化，但年轻人的成长速度却没能跟上库里的生涯倒计时。 理性看，波杰、穆迪等人都有培养价值，但如果他们的成长需要两三年甚至更长时间，那届时的库里还能保持多少战力呢？ 从这个视角看，这笔交易的逻辑很简单，放弃未来，全力赌在当下。 按照这笔预期交易看，如果真正达成，对于勇士而言，希罗可能就是最直接的进攻补充了。 回看这几年的勇士，主要就是库里下场后的进攻断层，而希罗恰好能填上这一点。 作为一位能自行开发投篮、兼具持球挡拆和外线投射的后卫，至少能帮助库里减少负荷，把更多精力放到无球跑动和关键进攻上。 当然，对于库里+希罗的后场组合，最大的问题就在于防守尺寸；但如果勇士决定围绕库里最后几年冲成绩，那么进攻端多一个火力点，自然比什么都重要。 不过如果要在这几个即战力筹码中挑一个最重要的，希罗反而并非关键，最有价值的可能在于特纳。
C | 原因也很简单，对于勇士，他们缺中锋已经很久了；近几年虽然格林还能顶五号位，但要能兼顾换防协防和组织护筐，现在的格林就不够用了。 而反观特纳就不一样了。 作为出色护筐大个子，近几年还开发出了三分，能给外线人提供挡拆价值和进攻空间；仅从这些优势看，对于库里相当重要。 甚至在轮换深度上，哈克斯和小波特也有轮换价值。
D | 总结来看，这笔交易对于勇士的补强方向足够清晰；希罗补充第二得分点，特纳解决内线攻防，哈克斯是加强锋线轮换，小波特则负责提升替补持球点。
E | 相比于其他堆球星的方案，这笔交易确实针对了勇士目前最明显的几个问题；但关键在于，现在的勇士愿意押上全部未来吗？ 这才是最值得讨论的地方。 两个首轮，特别是31年首轮，潜力价值属实不好估算。 按照正常轨迹，31年库里大概已经退役，勇士也进入重建期，那么一个首轮就是相当珍贵的资产了。 而从雄鹿一方看，这笔交易也具备一定交易价值。 巴特勒能提供即战力，波杰、穆迪、理查德都是可以培养的年轻资源，再加上两个首轮，雄鹿基本等于同时拿到了现在和未来。 理性来看，如果勇士致力于当下出成绩，那么这笔交易对于两队的逻辑都成立；只不过双方想要的东西不同。 所以，最后把讨论留给球迷： 对于这笔6换4方案，你觉得是否值得呢？。
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