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Why Finland & Sweden's NATO Future is Uncertain, Fraught With Economic & Security Risks_我的网站

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A | "The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO constitutes a test of loyalty to the western bloc, in particular to the US and Great Britain, which are the real geopolitical and geostrategic beneficiaries of the ongoing conflict," said Dr. Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends International Institute for Global Analyses.,The two Nordic countries' neutrality differs. Sweden had not joined a military alliance or participated in any war since 1814, with its neutrality being flexible, self-declared and not enshrined in law, as the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars noted in its 2 February 2022 study.,In contrast, Finland's neutrality was stipulated by the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 which was signed after the end of the Second World War between the Allied powers - including the USSR, the UK, the US and France - and former Nazi Germany allies, such as Italy, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Finland.,"This definitely appears to be a violation of Finland’s international agreements signed after WWII with the Soviet Union then later Russia," said Earl Rasmussen, executive vice-president of Eurasia Group, citing the 1947 treaty as well as the 1992 Russo-Finnish treaty.,It raises questions as to whether benefits from the abandoned neutrality will outweigh potential security risks for the two Nordic states.,"I am puzzled by how this inclusion will provide increased security, it appears it will likely further deteriorate relations between Russia and the EU and more specifically with Finland and Sweden," Rasmussen said. "Strategically, I am not sure what the real impact will be. Essentially, both Finland and Sweden are de facto NATO members to include coordination and joint exercises. However, tensions will likely increase and increased defensive measures will likely occur in Russia’s northern regions as well as Kaliningrad.",Why Finland & Sweden’s NATO Admission Is So Important to the US16 May, 19:17 GMT,What Do Finns and Swedes Think About NATO Membership?,Meanwhile, popular support for NATO membership in both Nordic states has never been high.,According to a 2021 poll commissioned by EVA Finnish Business and Policy Forum, around 26% of Finns were in favor of joining NATO, 40% against and 33% remained undecided. A January 2022 Demoskop survey showed 42% of Swedes supporting NATO accession and 37% of respondents opposed it.,The Russian special operation in Ukraine is said to have invigorated NATO proponents in both Nordic countries. Rasmussen noted that recent surveys in Finland have shown a spike in support up to 76%. However, in Sweden, support to join NATO has remained relatively low, climbing to just 47%, according to him.,Meanwhile, unlike Sweden, Finland shares a 1,340 km (830 mi) border with Russia and has maintained longstanding economic relations with Moscow for decades. As of 2019, Finland imported around 60% of its energy from Russia with the latter being the fourth largest importer of Finnish goods in 2017, according to the Wilson Center. Furthermore, Russian speakers constitute the third largest ethnic group in the Nordic country.,Putin: If NATO Infrastructure is Deployed to Finland & Sweden, Russia Will Respond in ‘Mirror Way’01:02 GMT,"Even during the Cold War, both states were neutral and non-NATO members, with Finland developing strong economic and trade relations with Russia," the Eurasia Group vice-president explained. "As trade degrades and energy sharing diminishes there will likely be a strain placed on the economies, mostly with Finland.",Moscow has repeatedly underscored that Russia harbors no hostile intentions against either Nordic country, yet also signaling that the latest NATO expansion will not make the continent more stable or secure. Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the Kremlin has "nothing that could worry us in terms of Finland or Sweden's membership in NATO," adding, however, that if military equipment or troops are deployed along the border, Moscow will have to "respond in a mirror manner and create the same threats in the territories from which they threaten us.",There is yet another controversy surrounding Sweden and Finland's accession to the western military bloc: neither Nordic state has held a popular referendum to find out whether the public has really weighed all the pros and cons of NATO membership.,"Political leadership in both countries is taking a certain degree of risk to push forward the joining without a public referendum," Rasmussen said. "I am sure Washington and Brussels realize that risk.",In addition to that, NATO accession may increase political polarization in both Nordic states, according to the Eurasia Group vice-president. In particular, "the Finnish government is made up of several political parties with no single party having a clear majority, hence requiring partnerships being established," he noted, adding that worsening economic conditions could "potentially create divisions politically and thus alignments could easily change.",Meanwhile, the Swedish left has lashed out at the government and the Social Democrats over Stockholm's NATO admission deal with Ankara. According to Expressen, the Greens and the Left Party are mooting a no-confidence vote against Foreign Minister Ann Linde.,Bank of England Head: UK To Face More Inflation Than Other Major Economies10:47 GMT,Why NATO's 2% Requirement Appears Unrealistic Today,NATO rules may trigger further controversy as they will require Sweden and Finland to spend 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on their defense budgets. Even though the Nordic countries have committed to reaching the benchmark by 2024, the long-term viability of their promises is in question, given skyrocketing inflation in Europe.,Inflation in Finland has recently risen to its highest level in over 30 years, hitting 7.1% in May. In April, the country's consumer price index (CPI), a popular gauge for inflation, stood at 5.7%, according to Statistics Finland.,Likewise, annual inflation in Sweden jumped from 6.4% in April to 7.3% in May, according to the country's Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate (CPIF).,"To this end, just as the Ukrainian people are sacrificed, so the economies of European countries will be sacrificed, including Finland and Sweden," forecast Graziani. "Very difficult economic and social months await us in Europe. It will be a very hot autumn. Political crises in various countries of the European Union are likely to be hypothesized.",EU member states, the UK and the US are taking efforts to tame galloping inflation which throws their capability of adhering to NATO requirements into question. To complicate matters further, the UK is calling to step up funding and arming of Ukraine "until victory" amid the Russian special operation.,"The US and UK are using the conflict in Ukraine to pressure greater EU involvement and support to include NATO contributions," said Rasmussen. "While it is being projected that member states will meet their 2% objectives by 2024, based on developing economic conditions and a pending recession, I question the realism of that projection. Increasing real contributions for defense along with rising tensions between the EU and Russia may prove challenging as economic conditions worsen resulting in political disruptions across Europe.",Meanwhile, the US is not in its best shape either, according to Rasmussen. The country steadily moves forward into a potentially deep recession; increased tensions with China; emerging challenges in Latin America; tensions with Iran; and economic challenges at home. The scholar believes that it is likely one will see a major political change in the US in 2022 midterms, in 2024 and beyond.,What’s more, as the Republican Party becomes increasingly influenced by MAGA supporters, Trump's skepticism towards the NATO alliance may get a second wind in 2024. And this raises further questions about the future of the Cold War-era military bloc.。 AI摘要第二十六届投洽会将于9月8日至11日在厦门举行。本届设芬兰、沙特为双主宾国，展览面积创历史新高，突出国际化、市场化、数智化特征，聚焦双向投资与闽台合作，旨在促进务实合作。东南网8月26日报道（福建日报记者尤方明）9月8日至11日，第二十六届中国国际投资贸易洽谈会将在厦门举行。

B | 8月25日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍本届投洽会相关情况。和往届相比，本届投洽会国际化、市场化、数智化三大特征更加突出。国际朋友圈更广。本届投洽会首次设置“双主宾国”，由芬兰、沙特担任，反映出投洽会的国际热度和双向投资的鲜明特征。目前已有123个国家和地区的代表团报名参加，60个国家和地区设展。在全球跨境投资不确定性上升的背景下，本届投洽会得到国际社会高度关注，境内外各界积极参与，有助于凝聚各方共识、推进务实合作。

C | 专业化更加鲜明。本届投洽会举办跨国公司座谈会、跨国投资趋势发布会、产供链国际合作对接会等特色活动，为外资企业深耕中国和中国企业出海提供双向对接平台。首次安排广东、青海“双主宾省”。各省（区、市）、计划单列市及新疆生产建设兵团均参展参会，并举办双向投资推介和项目发布。今年参展的头部金融机构和上市公司有140多家，将带来更多投资、金融服务方案和项目合作机遇。数智化水平明显提升。本届投洽会突出数字化、智能化，覆盖展览展示、信息查询、项目对接、保障服务全链条。全面升级“云上投洽会”数字化服务功能，方便与会者全天候看日程、查资讯、找项目，在展馆内进行智慧导航，一站式解决参会需求。

D | 本届投洽会迁至厦门国际博览中心新场馆，展览面积达到20万平方米，比上届增加了8万平方米，创历史新高。除了展馆更新、面积更大外，本届投洽会进一步突出投资主题，围绕“投资中国”“中国投资”“国际投资”三大板块，规划设置了14个专业展区，全面展示新质生产力、“丝路海运”、国际供应链等投资热点。突出闽台合作，两岸融合发展专区今年实现面积翻番、扩容提质，以“链通两岸·融享新机”为主题，集中展示半导体、金融服务、生物医药等领域合作新成果。

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F | 投洽会是我国唯一以投资为主题的国家级展会，也是福建展示开放形象、提升国际影响力的重要窗口。作为东道主省份，福建将通过场内场外、省内省外联动呼应，吸引更多客商选择福建、投资福建。在客商对接上诚邀八方宾朋。目前，本届投洽会已邀请2600多名重要客商。沙特阿美、博枫集团、正大集团、美中贸易全国委员会等知名跨国公司、商协会将组团参展参会。在项目撮合上搭好连心桥。

G | 全省已梳理招商项目828个，供境内外客商开展预对接、预洽谈。精选了131个重点融资项目，涵盖智能制造、信息技术、现代交通物流等领域，向境内外金融机构精准推送。聚焦生物医药、新能源、人工智能等新兴赛道，策划了32条特色产业考察线路，邀请客商深入八闽大地考察对接。在展洽融合上丰富场景集群。本届投洽会在馆内设立公共路演、资本项目对接等功能区域，促进展览展示和项目对接深度融合。福建展区总面积3700平方米，设置福建馆、“丝路海运”、开发区等展示专区。